Skip to content

Why don’t probability samples win elections? – NewMR

The puzzle Probability samples are the gold standard of survey research, yet when the task is forecasting an election result they do not reliably beat non-probability samples. This post asks why. The gold-standard reputation is well earned. When samples are compared against known facts about the population, probability samples are consistently more accurate than non-probability… Read More »Why don’t probability samples win elections? – NewMR

The Results of my Deep Research forecast of Tesla’s Share Price and the Canadian Elections

Ray Poynter, 13 May 2025 I think Deep Research is likely to replace quite a few types of research, some of them in the market research area. To investigate more, I tried two simple experiments. The first was to forecast the results of the recent Canadian Federal Elections  and the second was to forecast what… Read More »The Results of my Deep Research forecast of Tesla’s Share Price and the Canadian Elections